
action, especially for short-term traders.
The FX market is well-suited to price-based techniques such as technical and quantitative analysis. In terms of trading with technical analysis, as long as you use charts and indicators,
trading the euro currency/dollar currency pair is just like trading shares of Microsoft or E-mini futures.
One of the most common gripes about technical analysis is that it fails to consider the very factors that result in the move - ment of exchange rates; it only looks at statistics and patterns,
which are derivatives of market activity, not causes of it. As a result, some argue technical analysis is an ineffective forecasting tool.
Although this is undeniably true, it is also misleading. The advantage of technical analysis and other price-based techniques is they do not involve forecasting or predicting — they consider only what is actually going on in the market re g a rd i n g who is buying and who is selling. This is the true information in the market, and it is the only information that matters. The market
is simply a battle between buyers and sellers — and thus, technical analysis reasons, looking at the statistics behind this “battle” is all that is really needed to determine what really is going on in the market, and how to profit accordingly.
Implications for currency trading:
Ultimately, the most successful trading scenarios tend to be the ones supported by both technical/quantitative and fundamental arguments.
A great example of this is the breakdown of the
dollar against the yen in October 2003 — the pair declined 6
percent between October 2003
and February 2004 (see Figure
2).
At that time, both technicals
and fundamentals called for
gains in the yen against the dollar.
Technically, the dollar/yen had broken below longer-term support (a price level that has acted as a floor to past price declines), while fundamentally, Japan was finally showing economic growth after 10 years of stagnation.
It is important traders consider both schools of thought when trading currencies as fundamentals can shift the technical trend, while technicals can be used to forecast short-term movements
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